GMAT/留學申請專業顧問 Donz 之資訊交流園地

Drawn Conclusion 的題型為 - 利用題目提供的資訊，選出合理的推論 (inference or conclusion)。由於題目資訊有限，所以此類題型的答案選項也相對保守，正確答案通常不會超出題目範圍太多的其他資訊。

在此先示範一個例子: 

Meteorite explosions in the Earth's atmosphere as large as the one that destroyed forests in Siberia , with approximately the force of a twelve-megaton nuclear blast, occur about once a century. The response of highly automated systems controlled by complex computer programs to unexpected circumstances is unpredictable.

Which of the following conclusions can most properly be drawn, if the statements above are true, about a highly automated nuclear-missile defense system controlled by a complex computer program?

A. Within a century after its construction, the system would react inappropriately and might accidentally start a nuclear war.
B. The system would be destroyed if an explosion of a large meteorite occurred in the Earth's atmosphere.
C. It would be impossible for the system to distinguish the explosion of a large meteorite from the explosion of a nuclear weapon.
D. Whether the system would respond inappropriately to the explosion of a large meteorite would depend on the location of the blast.
E. It is not certain what the system's response to the explosion of a large meteorite would be, if its designers did not plan for such a contingency.

簡單敘述題意: 在地球大氣層發生、漢曾經毀掉 Siberia 的森林的隕石爆炸，大約一世紀發生一次。而由複雜的電腦程式控制的自動防衛系統對於未預測的現象的反應，是無法預知的。

問題: 下列哪個選項最可能由上述的資訊導出，和複雜的電腦程式控制的高度自動核彈防衛系統有關的答案？ 

作題策略: 題目說明了電腦控制的自我防衛系統，無法預測對未知的現象的反應，所以關於電腦程式的自動防衛系統，答案選項不可對於不可知的現象作推論的反應可能。

A. 在建構完完的一個世紀之後，此系統會做不適當的反應，且產生核武戰爭 -  對於未知的反應做出武斷推論，為錯誤選項。

B. 如果隕石出現在地球的大氣層，則此系統將會被毀滅 - 對於未知的反應做出武斷推論，為錯誤選項。

C. 此系統不可能區分大隕石爆炸和核武爆炸 - 對於未知的反應做出武斷推論，為錯誤選項。

D. 此系統是否會對大隕石爆炸做出不良反應取決在爆炸的地點 - 對於未知的反應做出武斷推論，為錯誤選項。 

E. 如果設計者沒有對意外事件做出規劃，則無法得知此系統對於大隕石爆炸的反應 - 說明此系統並沒有設計如何反應大隕石爆炸，所以無法預測反應，為題目資訊的選項，也為正確答案。

所以，在選 Drawn Conclusion 答案時，要盡可能的侷限題目的資訊來選擇，避免推論超出題目範圍太多的答案。